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Dem leading in Iowa Senate special election: poll

Mathis has 52-46 lead over Golding

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Liz Mathis

A new poll finds a Democratic candidate running for Iowa State Senate has an six-point lead in a special election that could impact marriage equality in the Hawkeye State.

The numbers published Monday by Public Policy Polling reveal Democrat Liz Mathis leads Republican Cindy Golding by a margin of 52-46. In an election set for Tuesday, Mathis, a former news anchor for an Iowa TV station, and Golding, a businessperson, are competing to represent Iowa’s 18th district in the Iowa State Senate, where Democrats hold a narrow 25-24 majority.

The outcome of the election could have an impact on Iowa marriage equality because a Republican win would create a tie in a leadership and could take control of the chamber away from Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, who’s vowed that a state constitutional amendment overturning marriage equality won’t come up as long as he remains leader of the chamber.

The plan for Senate leadership if the special election results in a tie remains in question. During a previous tie in 2005 and 2006, Democrats and Republicans alternatively shared power in the Senate and a rule was put in place ensuring no legislation could come up without consent of both parties. But Republican Leader Paul McKinley has reportedly said he won’t agree to such a rule this time around.

Same-sex marriage in Iowa was instituted in 2009 by order of the state Supreme Court. In February, the Republican-controlled Iowa House passed a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, or even marriage-like unions. If Democrats lose control of the Senate, a vote could held in that chamber and move the amendment closer to ratification. The amendment would have to be approved twice by the State Legislature in different sessions before heading to voters.

According to PPP, Mathis’ lead suggests she’s “just a stronger candidate” than Golding because responders were split evenly, 44-44, on whether they’d rather have Democrats or Republicans controlling the State Senate. The poll finds Mathis is taking 16 percent of the vote away from Golding.

Additionally, although media reports have framed this election as being marriage equality, the polls suggest voters in the district don’t see it that way. A majority plan on voting for Mathis even though a plurality, 46 percent, say same-sex marriage should be illegal while 42 percent back marriage rights for gay couples. Only 11 percent of responders identified marriage as the most important factor for them, while other says it’s something else.

According to PPP, dissatisfaction with Republican Gov. Terry Branstad may be driving voters in the district to support the Democratic candidate. The poll found that 39 percent of voters approve of him, while 42 percent disapprove.

Dean Debnam, president of public policy polling, said the race is still close enough that it could “go either way” as he acknowledged Mathis currently holds the lead.

“It looks like Democrats will probably hold onto control of the Iowa State Senate and if that is the case it will be a reflection of dissatisfaction with Gov. Branstad,” Debnam said.

Troy Price, executive director of One Iowa, said the poll makes him “cautiously optimistic,” but maintained the only poll that matters is “the one that comes in tomorrow night” after the election.

“I think this poll shows that in spite of the best efforts by the National Organization for Marriage, the Family Research Council, and the Family Leader, marriage equality and other social issues are not the deciding issues in the eyes of most voters,” Price said. “Rather, people want a candidate that will help bring our state together and meet our common challenges, like growing our economy and creating good jobs.  That is what people are looking for in their next senator, and it appears that many voters have decided who that person is.”

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National

Madonna turns Times Square into massive dance floor

Pop icon celebrates Pride month with surprise performance

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Madonna surprised New York fans with an impromptu show in Times Square. (Photo by Alex Antonioni; courtesy Warner Records)


Pop icon Madonna celebrated Pride month with a pop-up performance in New York City’s Times Square on Thursday to the delight of 50,000 fans.

She performed for about 15 minutes high above street level, including several songs from her new album “Confessions II” due on July 3, along with a trio of songs from the first “Confessions on a Dance Floor.”

In addition to the brand new “Love Sensation,” she performed “I Feel So Free” and “Bring Your Love,” plus “Hung Up,” “Get Together” and “I Love New York.” She wished the crowd a happy Pride season; the event was shared with audiences through Grindr’s first-ever livestream. 

Madonna performs in Times Square on Thursday. (Photo by Alex Antonioni; courtesy Warner Records)
(Photo by Ricardo Gomes; courtesy Warner Records)

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Gallup finds LGBTQ support among Americans is dropping

Marriage equality support lowest since 2016

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Progress rainbow flag and trans flag flying. (Washington Blade Photo by Michael Key)

Gallup, one of the leading organizations in public opinion polling, has found that LGBTQ support among Americans is dropping.

The poll, whose data was collected using Gallup’s annual Values and Beliefs survey, was conducted in May and was published on Wednesday. The data was collected through telephone interviews from a sample of more than 1,000 adults living in all 50 states and D.C. using random digit dialing. 

It highlights declining attitudes surrounding LGBTQ issues in multiple areas — from support for same-sex marriage to views on gender identity and the morality of one’s sexuality.

One of the most striking findings was that support for marriage equality fell six points from its 2022-2023 high.

The survey also found that 62 percent of Americans view gay and lesbian relations as morally acceptable, the lowest level since 2016 just after same-sex marriage was legalized nationwide by the U.S. Supreme Court. 

One newer question on the poll found that the perceived morality of changing one’s gender has dropped eight points since 2021, indicating the American public is less supportive of transgender people.

New data from Gallup shows a decline in LGBTQ support. (Graph courtesy of Gallup)

The data attributes much of the decline to shifting Republican views alongside the party itself. Conservative leaders have pushed back against diversity, equity, and inclusion programs that were intended to foster greater acceptance of LGBTQ people and other historically disadvantaged groups.

President Donald Trump has been a guiding force behind waves of anti-LGBTQ sentiment, particularly when it comes to trans rights. The president has enacted multiple executive orders, including Executive Order 14168, “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government,” which mandates that gender be defined by one’s sex assigned at birth. He also signed Executive Order 14183, “Prioritizing Military Excellence and Readiness,” which barred qualified trans applicants from joining the military and led to the removal of trans service members already serving in the armed forces.

Additionally, he signed Executive Order 14201, “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports,” which prohibits trans female athletes from participating on women’s and girls’ sports teams.

In February, Gallup found that an estimated 9 percent of Americans identified as part of the LGBTQ community in some form.

The organization also found that 23 percent of adults under age 30 identify as LGBTQ, compared with 10 percent of those ages 30 to 49 and 3 percent or less among those ages 50 and older.

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Congress

Ogles faces bipartisan backlash over anti-gay social media post

Tenn. congressman blamed the comment on staffer

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U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) (Photo public domain)

U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who represents Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, is facing backlash from LGBTQ advocates and fellow Republicans after a social media post declared that “homosexuality has no place in America.”

“Homosexuality has no place in America. Happy Nuclear Family Month,” the congressman wrote in a post on X that was later deleted.

According to the Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law, an estimated 6.3 percent of U.S. adults identify as LGBTQ.

Following widespread criticism, Ogles removed the post and blamed it on a staff member.

“The post was stupid, hurtful and a complete distraction from my America First focus. The employee has been reprimanded,” Ogles said in a statement.

The Washington Blade reached out to Ogles’s office for comment but did not receive a response by press time.

Among those condemning the message was U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who called it “absolutely idiotic” in a social media post.

“Homosexuality exists. In America,” Lawler wrote on X. “In fact, Andy, you have family, friends, neighbors, colleagues, and constituents who are gay and lesbian. It doesn’t make them less than or somehow unworthy of being an American.”

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) also criticized Ogles’s remarks.

“For all of recorded history, homosexuals have been a part of humanity,” Cruz told TMZ DC. “I think the behavior of consenting adults is their business.”

Chris Sanders, the executive director for the Tennessee Equality Project and Tennessee Equality Project Foundation provided a statement to the Blade about Ogles’s comment.

“The Tennessee Nuclear Family Month resolution has really backfired on conservatives by ensnaring Congressman Ogles in scandal. He used the resolution as a pretext to say that our community doesn’t belong in America, resulting in incredible backlash from across the partisan divide,” Sanders said. “It is a good opportunity for him to pause and reflect on whether it’s time for him to resign. Fighting one’s own constituents is not the purpose of serving in Congress.”

Human Rights Campaign Senior Press Secretary Jarred Keller provided a statement to the Blade regarding Ogles’s comments.

“LGBTQ+ people are woven into the fabric of America, and any politician who questions that is severely out of touch with reality. When so many people are worried about whether they can afford gas to get to work or groceries for their families, the last thing we need is right-wing Republicans targeting marginalized communities with hateful attacks,” Keller said. “Representative Ogles should spend less time attacking LGBTQ+ people and start addressing the issues that actually matter, because last I checked, our community isn’t the reason families are struggling to make ends meet.”

The controversy comes as Tennessee continues to advance legislation affecting LGBTQ residents. The state already has several laws on the books that LGBTQ advocates have criticized, including the Adult Entertainment Act, enacted in 2023, which restricts certain “adult cabaret performances.”

Lawmakers have also introduced additional measures this legislative session, including the “No Pride Flag or Month Act,” which would prohibit state employees, volunteers, and agents from displaying Pride flags or participating in Pride observances while acting in an official capacity.

Another proposal, the “Banning Bostock Act” would seek to limit the application of state anti-discrimination protections based on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Bostock v. Clayton County. Tennessee lawmakers have also passed other measures restricting LGBTQ rights and access to gender-affirming health care.

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