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Early polls show Biden, Dems face uphill fight

President losing support among Latino, Black, young voters

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President Joe Biden (Photo by palinchik/Bigstock)

With the holidays behind us and the Iowa caucuses less than two weeks away, the nation’s attention is turning toward this year’s presidential election as new polls suggest President Biden and the Democrats face uphill battles to victory.

On the heels of the new numbers, top Biden-Harris reelection campaign officials hosted a press call on Tuesday to preview some steps they will take as part of what Campaign Manager Julie ChĆ”vez Rodriguez called an “aggressive push in early 2024 to mobilize the winning coalition that will reelect” the president and vice president.

According to aĀ USA Today/Suffolk University pollĀ released Monday, the president is, as Fox News wrote, “hemorrhaging support from Black, Hispanic and young voters.” Among those first two groups, compared with data from 2020 captured by Pew Research, the poll showed Biden’s support down a respective 29 and 25 percentage points.

Among voters younger than 35, meanwhile, the data showed him trailing former President Donald Trump by four points. The younger demographic was instrumental in delivering him the White House in 2020.

The findings come with important caveats. For example, to the extent that support for Biden has eroded, the numbers suggest a greater embrace of third-party candidates rather than movement in the direction of Trump.

However, 44 percent of Trump voters ranked their enthusiasm for his candidacy at a 10 out of 10, versus just 18 percent of Biden supporters.

A survey released by Gallup at the end of December found Biden’s approval rating hovering around 39 percent.

Gallup notes that former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump had slightly higher ratings heading into the year they sought reelection, 43 and 45 percent, respectively, while all of the other past seven presidents were above 50 percent at this point in their tenures.

Another survey, which was released on Monday by The Washington Post/University of Maryland, found that one-third of U.S. adults believe that Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020.

The survey was meant to explore evolving views about the deadly ransacking of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters on Jan. 6, 2021. On that topic, opinion is moving “in a more sympathetic direction to Trump and those who stormed the Capitol” according to the Post.

At the same time, the paper wrote, “most Americans have not bought into that revised version of events” and Jan. 6 remains a political liability for the former president heading into 2024. For example, most Republicans said they believe punishments for those who breached the Capitol were either ā€œfairā€ (37 percent) or ā€œnot harsh enoughā€ (17 percent).

As they gear up for the months ahead, it looks like the Biden campaign is betting that Jan. 6 will be a sticking point for voters, and an illustration of the contrast between the candidates’ visions for America.

Biden campaign focusing on the contrast


“On election day in 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by more than 7 million votes and got more votes than any presidential candidate in history,” ChĆ”vez Rodriguez said. “On Jan. 6 2021, we witnessed a very different vision of America ā€” one defined by revenge, retribution, and a rebuke of our very democracy.”

“When Joe Biden ran for president four years ago, he said we are in the battle for the soul of America,” she said. “And as we look towards November 2024, we still are. The threat Donald Trump posed in 2020 to American democracy has only grown more dire in the years since. There’s less than two weeks until GOP primary voters began casting ballots in Iowa and former President Donald Trump’s extreme and dangerous MAGA agenda continues to define the Republican Party.”

“The choice for voters next year will not simply be between competing philosophies of governing,” ChĆ”vez Rodriguez said. “The choice for the American people in November 2024 will be about protecting our democracy and every American’s fundamental freedoms.”

The campaign’s Communications Director Michael Tyler later told reporters, “If reelected, Donald Trump will use all of his power to systematically dismantle and destroy our democracy.”

“He wants to end free and fair elections altogether, is promising to rule as a dictator and use the government to exact retribution on his political enemies, all while he and his MAGA supporters encourage and applaud political violence across the country,” Tyler said.

He noted the Post’s poll about Jan. 6, highlighting that respondents said the insurrection was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, and an event for which Trump bore responsibility.

Biden team outlines early 2024 plans

“The threat that Donald Trump posed in 2020 to American democracy has grown even more dangerous than it was when President Biden ran last time,” Principal Deputy Campaign Manager Quentin Fulks said during the call. “That’s why we’re hitting the ground early. We’re running hard this year to bring the message directly to voters who will decide this election.”

This will begin, Fulks said, with an address by Biden on Saturday, Jan. 6 near Valley Forge, Pa., a historic site with important ties to the American Revolution. “There, the president will make the case directly that democracy and freedom ā€” two powerful ideas that united the 13 colonies and that generations throughout our nation’s history have fought and died for, a stone’s throw from where he’ll be on Saturday ā€” remains central to the fight we’re in today.”

Biden will then head to South Carolina on Jan. 8, for a visit to Mother Emmanuel AME Church in Charleston, Fulks said, the site where a white supremacist murdered nine Black churchgoers in 2015.

He said Vice President Kamala Harris will also be in Charleston on Saturday for an appearance at the 7th Episcopal District AME Church Women’s Missionary Society annual retreat to discuss the attacks on freedoms in states across the country.

“And on the anniversary of Roe v Wade later this month on Jan. 22, Vice President Harris will kick off her official reproductive freedoms tour in Wisconsin,” Fulks said, “where she’ll highlight the chaos and cruelty created by Trump all across the country when it comes to women’s health care.”

Harris will be joined “in full force,” he said, by “the entirety of our campaign” on that anniversary.

“The rest of 2024 will be no different as we will continue scaling up our operation and taking our message to the American people,” Fulks said. “We’re entering the election year with significant resources thanks to a historic 2023 fundraising operation, including a strong Q4 powered by consistent and stronger than expected grassroots support.”

Fulks said this will mean expanding programs across states, hiring leadership teams “in every battleground state,” and dedicating thousands of staff to “talking to our voters early and often” while implementing new organizing efforts.

Finally, he said, “we’re going to continue to scale up our paid media program including a new paid media investment we will announce ahead of the president’s speech near Valley Forge on Saturday.”

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Politics

HRC slams White House over position opposing gender affirming surgeries for minors

ā€˜Biden administration is flat wrong on thisā€™

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Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson issued a strong rebuke on Tuesday of the Biden-Harris administration’s position opposing gender affirming surgeries for minors.

The New York Times reported on June 28 that the White House, which broadly supports making medical interventions available for transgender youth, had expressed opposition to surgeries for patients under 18, having previously declined to take a specific position on the question.

ā€œHealth care decisions for young people belong between a patient, their family, and their health care provider. Trans youth are no exception,” Robinson responded. 

ā€œThe Biden administration is flat wrong on this. Itā€™s wrong on the science and wrong on the substance. Itā€™s also inconsistent with other steps the administration has taken to support transgender youth. The Biden administration, and every elected official, need to leave these decisions to families, doctors and patientsā€”where they belong,” she added. “Although transgender young people make up an extremely small percentage of youth in this country, the care they receive is based on decades of clinical research and is backed by every major medical association in the U.S. representing over 1.3 million doctors.”

Robinson said the “administration has committed to fight any ban on healthcare for transgender youth and must continue this without hesitationā€”the entire community is watching.” 

ā€œNo parent should ever be put in the position where they and their doctor agree on one course of action, supported by the overwhelming majority of medical experts, but the government forbids it,ā€ she added.

HRC is a prominent backer of Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign, having pledged $15 million to support efforts in six battleground states. The organization has a strong relationship with the White House, with the president and first lady headlining last year’s National Dinner.

A White House spokesperson declined to respond to Robinson’s statement.

Campaign for Southern Equality President Allison Scott also issued a statement.

ā€œThis is a cowardly statement from an administration that promised to support transgender people. It is a troubling concession to the right-wing assault on transgender Americans, falling for their false narratives about surgical care and betraying a commitment to equality and trust in the medical community,ā€ said Scott.

ā€œLetā€™s be very, very clear: Government has no business inserting itself into private medical decisions that should be exclusively between patients, their providers, and the patientsā€™ parent or guardian,” Scott added.

“It is dangerous to begin endorsing categorical bans or limits on healthcare, and there is no justification for restricting transgender youthā€™s access to the very same care that many cisgender youth receive every year ā€” thatā€™s literally the definition of discrimination,” Scott concluded. “We demand the Biden administration retract this thoughtless statement and work to undo its damage.ā€ 

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Congress

Members of Congress introduce resolution to condemn Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act

U.S. Reps. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) and Joyce Beatty spearheaded condemnation

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U.S. Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

More than 20 members of Congress on Thursday introduced a resolution that condemns Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act.

Gay California Congressman Mark Takano and U.S. Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) spearheaded the resolution that U.S. Reps. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), RaĆŗl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), Gwen Moore (D-Wis.), Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.), Mark Pocan (D-Wash.), Delia Ramirez (D-Ill), Linda SĆ”nchez (D-Calif.), Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) co-sponsored.

“The House of Representatives condemns the government of Ugandaā€™s criminalization and draconian punishments regarding consensual same-sex sexual conduct and so-called ā€˜’promotion of homosexuality,ā€™” reads the resolution.

The resolution, among other things, also calls upon the Ugandan government to repeal the law.

ā€œIt is difficult to overstate the gross inhumanity of Ugandaā€™s Anti-Homosexuality Act,ā€ said Takano in a press release.

President Yoweri Museveni in May 2023 signed the law, which contains a death penalty provision for ā€œaggravated homosexuality.ā€

The U.S. subsequently imposed visa restrictions on Ugandan officials and removed the country from a program that allows sub-Saharan African countries to trade duty-free with the U.S. The World Bank Group also announced the suspension of new loans to Uganda.

The Ugandan Constitutional Court in April refused to ā€œnullify the Anti-Homosexuality Act in its totality.ā€ A group of Ugandan LGBTQ activists appealed the ruling.

ā€œInstead of focusing on rooting out corruption or ending extrajudicial killings, the Ugandan Parliament, president, and Constitutional Court have chosen to mark LGBTQ+ Ugandans as less than human,” said Takano. “Congress must not be silent in the face of such systematic, state-sponsored discrimination.”

“To all those LGBTQ+ people and your allies in Uganda ā€” we see you,” added the California Democrat. “We and the Biden administration will not allow this terrible violation of basic dignity to go unchallenged.ā€ 

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Politics

LGBTQ issues absent from Trump-Biden debate

Advocacy groups hoped candidates would address queer topics

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Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden debate on CNN on Jun 27, 2024. (Screen captures via CNN)

At their televised debate in Atlanta on June 27, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump traded barbs on issues from abortion and election integrity to immigration and foreign policy. The 81 and 78-year-old candidates even argued over who is a better golfer.

Absent from the discussion, however, were matters of LGBTQ rights that have animated national politics in this election cycle with the presumptive Republican nominee promising to weaponize the federal government against queer and trans Americans as the president pledges to build on his record of expanding their freedoms and protections.

CNN hosted Thursday’s debate, with the network’s anchors Dana Bash and Jake Tapper moderating. ABC News will run the second debate scheduled for September 10.

The president’s performance was widely criticized as halting and shaky, with White House reporter Peter Baker of The New York Times writing that Democratic Party leaders are calling for him to be replaced at the top of the ticket.

Also setting the tone early into the program was Trump’s repetition of the lie that Democrats are so “radical” on matters of abortion that they “will take the life of a child in the eighth month, the ninth month, and even after birth.”

Biden, meanwhile, laid the blame at his opponent’s feet for appointing three U.S. Supreme Court justices during his term in office who overturned Roe v. Wade’s 51-year-old constitutional protections for abortion.

He also referenced the fallout from that ruling and the extreme restrictions passed by conservative legislators in its wake, arguing that Trump would not veto a federal abortion ban if Republican majorities in Congress were to pass one.

Trump also repeated falsehoods about the 2020 presidential election.

“Will you pledge tonight that once all legal challenges have been exhausted, that you will accept the results of this election,” Bash asked him, “regardless of who wins, and you will say right now that political violence in any form is unacceptable?”

The Republican frontrunner first responded by denying he was responsible for his supporters’ violent ransacking of the U.S. Capitol Building on Jan. 6 2021.

After the CNN anchor pressed him twice to answer the first part of her question, Trump said, “if it’s a fair and legal and good election, absolutely” but “the fraud and everything else was ridiculous.”

“You appealed and appealed to courts all across the country,” Biden responded. “Not one single court in America said any of your claims had any merit, state or local, none. But you continue to provoke this lie about somehow, there’s all this misrepresentation, all this stealing ā€” there is no evidence of that at all.”

The president continued, “And I tell you what, I doubt whether you’ll accept it, because you’re such a whiner.”

Advocacy groups hoped the debate would address LGBTQ issues

Leading up to the debate, advocacy groups urged the candidates to defend their records on and policy proposals concerning LGBTQ rights, with some arguing the discussion would advantage President Joe Biden’s campaign, as reported by The Hill’s Brooke Migdon.

As the community celebrated Pride this month, the Biden-Harris 2024 team made significant investments in paid media and the Out for Biden national organizing effort to court LGBTQ voters, who are expected to comprise a larger share of the electorate than ever before.

ā€œThis will be an enormous slight to our community if LGBTQ questions are not asked during this debate,ā€ GLAAD President Sarah Kate Ellis said. ā€œOur community is deeply affected by where these candidates stand.ā€Ā 

ā€œThe safety and freedom of LGBTQ people depends on your engagement with the candidates and ability to inform voters about their records and proposals,ā€ she said.

Annise Parker, the outgoing president and CEO of the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, said ā€œI certainly hope that the moderators bring up the LGBTQ community and LGBTQ issues, because there is a stark contrast between the two candidates.”

ā€œI hope we see a substantive conversation on the records of these two men for the fight for a more equal society,ā€ said Brandon Wolf, national press secretary at the Human Rights Campaign.

ā€œA vast majority of people in this country support an America that treats people with dignity and respect; they support an America that prevents people from experiencing discrimination and harm simply because of who they are,ā€ he said.

ā€œThat is where the American people largely are, and I hope we get an opportunity on that stage to see the contrast between these two candidates.ā€Ā 

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