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Valuing your home with the flip of a coin

Setting a price is one of Realtors’ toughest tasks

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home, gay news, Washington Blade
home, gay news, Washington Blade

As Realtors, we know that one of our most difficult tasks is pricing a home. That holds true whether we are representing a seller or a buyer.

One of the great evolutions in real estate over the last decade is the power of the Internet, and more than 90 percent of homebuyers begin their search there. We think that’s great, and buyers are more empowered than ever with loads of information. Some of that information can come from sites like Zillow that offer what’s called an “automated valuation model” – AVM for short – that purportedly presents a great estimate of the current market value of millions of homes.

It’s cool technology, amassing an enormous amount of information from publicly available sources in one place that is then scrubbed through very sophisticated algorithms to predict value. And all of that is presented in an easy-to-use user interface. And to their enormous credit, Zillow has done a tremendous job in reaching “top of mind” status with consumers. There’s just one problem: Those predicted values are wildly inaccurate and inconsistent.

As Realtors, we know that one of our most difficult tasks is pricing a home. That holds true whether we are representing a seller or a buyer. Market pressures change from week to week and from neighborhood to neighborhood. The motivation of the parties is always a factor, as is the condition of a home and those around it. No algorithm, however sophisticated, can quantify the value of a kitchen that was remodeled just before a home was put on the market or a yard that is poorly maintained. It simply isn’t possible for any AVM to predict the value of a home with a level of accuracy sufficient to make a housing decision. Zillow knows that’s true – and they say as much on their website (although you have to dig a bit to find it). They have this to say about their “zestimates” of value:

“The Zestimate is not an appraisal and you won’t be able to use it in place of an appraisal, though you can certainly share it with real estate professionals. It is a computer-generated estimate of the worth of a house today, given the available data. Zillow does not offer the Zestimate as the basis of any specific real-estate-related financial transaction. Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home. Remember, the Zestimate is a starting point and does not consider all the market intricacies that can determine the actual price a house will sell for.”

Yet not a week goes by that we don’t encounter a consumer who is fixated on a particular value for a home because that’s what Zillow says it is. Kudos to Zillow for making this kind of impression on the public – brilliant marketing.  But our research shows that, on average, those “zestimates” are within 5 percent of the actual value of a home just half of the time. (Funny, that’s what their research shows as well.)  As Realtors, if we got within 5 percent of the value of a home that infrequently we’d be out of business.

So if a consumer wants to base their valuation of a home purchase or sale on what they find on the Internet, we suggest they take out a coin and flip it. Heads – that value is within 5 percent (high or low) of what the home is actually worth. Tails – that value could be 10 percent, 20 percent or more off target.

 

How accurate are ‘Zestimates?’

 

A detailed analysis of 500 recent sales in Metro Washington, D.C.: Beginning in 2010, McEnearney Associates has examined the accuracy of the estimates for property values that Zillow provides – their “zestimates” of value. This marks our fourth and most comprehensive analysis.

We took 500 properties in MRIS, our regional multiple listing system, that were scheduled to settle between March 24 and March 31, 2014. During that week, we looked for the zestimates of those 500 properties. Once the properties settled, we compared the actual sold price to the predicted values on Zillow. And to be as fair as possible, we excluded new home sales from our research because it is highly unlikely that Zillow would have details of the home to be built.

To provide some context, we compared the results of the March 2014 research to that of our September 2012 research. In 2012, we researched 280 properties, and we were able to find a zestimate for all 280. In the research we just concluded, we were able to find values for all but two of the 500 properties.

Generally, Zillow’s predicted market value is not any better now than it was 18 months ago. The zestimate is within 5 percent of the actual sales price roughly half the time. In September 2012, the zestimate was just as likely to be too low as too high; now, it is roughly twice as likely to be too low.

As one might expect with a computer-generated value, there are always “outliers.” In September 2012, of the 280 zestimates, the highest was roughly 140 percent of the actual sales prices. The lowest was 82 percent. In the research we just concluded, the highest predicted value was 256 percent of the actual sales price and the lowest was 62.8 percent.

There are significant geographic differences in Zillow’s performance in our current research. They get within 5 percent of the actual sales price just over a third of the time for properties in Washington, DC, and within 10 percent of the sales price less than 60 percent of the time.  They are within 5 percent of sales price 43 percent of the time in Maryland and almost 60 percent in Virginia.

Zillow is a bit less accurate for condo and coops than for attached or detached homes.  Mirroring the overall results, in all three property types Zillow is at least twice as likely to predict a value that is at least 5 percent lower than the actual value as predicting 5 percent high.

Not surprisingly, those properties that sold for $1,000,000 and more were a little tougher for Zillow to estimate accurately. They got within 5 percent of the actual price just over one third of the time. They fared much better for homes selling between $500,000 and $999,999, getting within 5 percent almost 60 percent of the time, but for homes selling for less than $500,000 they were within 5 percent less than half the time.

David Howell is executive vice president and chief information officer for McEnearney Associates. He is responsible for the firm’s technology, market information and public relations. He is also principal broker for McEnearney Associates in Maryland, and is an associate broker in Virginia and D.C.

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Real Estate

How to protect yourself from rental scams

Beware of fraudulent checks, identity theft

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Scams can affect both tenants and landlords during summer rental season.

As the summer rental season ramps up, be aware that scams can affect both tenants and landlords. As a property owner looking to rent out your space, you might encounter various fraudulent schemes when advertising your property online. Understanding these scams and recognizing the red flags can save you stress and even financial loss.

Three of the most common scams that landlords face in the District of Columbia include the following:

1. Fake Payment Scams

Tenants provide fraudulent checks or money orders for rent or security deposits. These payments appear legitimate initially, but eventually bounce or are identified as fake.

Why it works: Scammers take advantage of the delay between the initial deposit and the time it takes for banks to identify fraudulent checks, allowing them to secure access to the property.  Once they do, they have possession and in the District of Columbia, that means a court case to remove them.

Prevention Steps:

  • Verify Funds: Wait for the check or money order to fully clear before handing over keys or signing the lease. This can take several days.
  • Use Electronic Payments: Encourage tenants to use electronic payment methods like bank transfers or verified payment apps, which can be more secure and quicker to verify.
  • Bank Verification: Contact the issuing bank to verify the authenticity of the payment instrument.

2. Identity Theft Scams

Prospective tenants use stolen or fake identities to pass background and credit checks. Once they secure the lease, they may engage in illegal activities or fail to pay rent.

Why it works: Scammers exploit the reliance on documentation and credit reports which, if fake, can be difficult to verify without thorough checks.

Prevention Steps:

  • Thorough Screening: Conduct comprehensive background checks, including employment and previous rental history. 

As a self-managing landlord, this can be both time-consuming and complicated.  There are several easy ways to get caught in unlawful methods of screening based on the Districts strict tenant laws.  When in doubt to get it legally right, seek out professional help, so you do not inadvertently end up violating regulations in place to protect renters.

  • In-Person Meetings: Meet prospective tenants in person and request multiple forms of identification to verify their identity. Again, it’s critical to do this within the boundaries of the law. Make sure if you do it for one, do the same process, have the same questions and take the same actions for all interested parties. 
  • Cross-Check Information: Contact employers and previous landlords directly using publicly available contact information to confirm details provided by the tenant. Make sure you are indeed speaking to their prior or current landlord by preparing very specific questions about their lease agreement or other items a fake reference will not know or will stumble to answer. 

3. Subletting Scams

Tenants illegally sublet the property to others, often at a higher rate, without the landlord’s knowledge or permission. This can lead to over-occupancy and property damage. You may also not know who is living in your unit or if they would have qualified if you had screened them.  Lastly, if they have possession of your property, getting them out involves a court case. 

Why it works: Scammers take advantage of landlords who do not monitor their properties closely, allowing them to profit from unauthorized subletting.

Prevention Steps:

  • Find management: Ensure that preventative steps are taken, to ensure renter compliance with any sub-letting rules you’ve laid down in the original agreement.
  • Regular Inspections: Conduct regular property inspections to ensure that only authorized tenants are residing in the property. Inspections in the District are tricky, a landlord cannot just enter at will or too frequently.  Be sure you know the rules, or ask a professional for advice before you enter your renter-occupied property.
  • Lease Clauses: Include clear clauses in the lease agreement that prohibit subletting without written permission from the landlord. Is your agreement rock solid? Or do you need professionals on your side who know what to do to ensure both you and your renters are protected fairly?
  • Neighborhood Watch: Establish good communication with neighbors who can alert you to any suspicious activity or unauthorized occupants.  If you used to live at that location your former neighbors and friends are the best way to keep eyes and ears out on what is going on in your property and to alert you to any unusual behaviors.

By taking these preventive measures, landlords can better protect themselves from common scams and ensure a more secure rental process.

Anatomy of a Common Rental Scam

Another prevalent scam starts when you post an advertisement for your rental property. Scammers may copy your listing, post it at a lower price, and pretend they are the landlords. Unsuspecting tenants may pay a deposit to them or even the first month’s rent to these fraudsters, believing they are securing their new home. Here’s how the scam typically unfolds:

Step 1: Scammers take the details and photos from your legitimate listing and create a fake one, often with lower rent to attract more potential tenants.

Step 2: They claim to be out of town and unable to show the property, urging potential tenants to drive by and view the property from the outside.

Step 3: They ask for a security deposit or the first month’s rent via online payment methods before the tenant has signed a lease or even seen the inside of the property.

How to Protect Yourself

Here are some steps you can take to protect yourself from these scams:

Secure Your Listing: Use reputable rental platforms and websites known for their security measures to advertise your property.

Watermark Your Photos: Adding a watermark to the images in your rental listings can prevent scammers from easily stealing your photos.

Educate Potential Tenants: Inform applicants about common scams and encourage them to be cautious of listings that seem too good to be true, ask for money up front, etc.

Meet or Video Call Potential Tenants: If possible, meet tenants in person or through a video call to verify their identity and discuss the rental terms. Requiring a matching photo ID during the application process is an added layer to ensure this is the same person.

Verify Tenant Information: Conduct a comprehensive background check, including credit, employment, rental history, and criminal records.

Red Flags for Landlords

To protect yourself and potential tenants from a scam like this, be aware of the following red flags during the tenant screening process:

  • Paying All Cash Upfront: If a prospective tenant offers to pay the rent for the entire lease period in cash without a proper background check, be cautious. This can be a sign that they want to avoid detection due to illegal activities or poor credit history.
  • Urgency to Move In: A tenant who is pushing to move in immediately, especially without seeing the property, should raise a red flag. They might be trying to rush the process before you notice any inconsistencies in their story or background.
  • Lack of Interest in Viewing the Property: Be wary of tenants who do not ask to see the property or who are satisfied with just external views. Genuine tenants will usually want to inspect where they are going to live.
  • Poor or Incomplete Documentation: If a tenant cannot provide proper identification, proof of income, or previous rental history, this is a significant warning sign. Scammers often avoid giving out personal information that can be traced back to them.
  • Unusual Payment Methods: Be cautious if a tenant wants to use unconventional payment methods like wire transfers or cryptocurrency. Standard practices include checks, bank transfers, or credit card payments, which offer more security and traceability.

Organizations That Can Help

If you find yourself a victim of a rental scam, there are organizations that can offer assistance and guidance:

Federal Trade Commission (FTC): They handle complaints about deceptive and unfair business practices, including rental scams. You can file a complaint at ftc.gov.

Better Business Bureau (BBB): The BBB provides information on businesses, including complaints and scam alerts. Visit their website at bbb.org for more resources.

Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3): This is a partnership between the FBI and the National White Collar Crime Center, and it allows victims to report internet-related criminal complaints. Visit their site at ic3.gov.

Local Law Enforcement: Contact your local police department to report the scam, especially if money has been exchanged.

By staying vigilant and informed, you can protect yourself and potential tenants from falling prey to these sophisticated scams. Remember, prevention is always better than cure, especially in the real estate market.

(Note: For examples of the three scams included, we have produced some of the content of this article using AI.)

Scott Bloom is owner and senior property manager of Columbia Property Management. For more information and resources, go to ColumbiaPM.com.

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Real Estate

A look at down payment assistance programs

Pride in ourselves, Pride in homeownership

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(Photo by GaJaS/Bigstock)

One of the most popular questions at our home buyer seminars is “What are the down payment assistance or first-time homebuyer programs available where I live?”  There are various programs sponsored by multiple jurisdictions with the help of local banks, federal grants and loans as well. Knowledgeable lenders in the area will direct their eligible borrowers to these programs when a home purchase is being considered. Some of the programs are frequently mentioned in the local news: HPAP, EAHP, and DC Open Doors. There are also other options such as:

• FHLB grant for down payment assistance and/or closing costs

• Bank portfolio loans such as the Sandy Spring Bank loan, which can be 3% of the home purchase price – paired with a 97% first trust loan which is 100% financing at market rates

• Citibank Home Run

• Bank of America Down Payment Grant or Home Grant

• Chase Dream Maker Grant

• DC Open Doors – (DC Purchases only)

• HPAP/EAHP (for DC purchases only, when funds are available.)

All of these programs, grants, and loans come with guidelines and regulations, which may include income limits, household size limitations, geographic boundaries, homebuyer education classes, occupying the home as a primary residence, and funds availability. Some are easier to use and implement than others. Others may be available but can take 60 or more days to close on a home purchase, where another buyer may offer a seller a 30-day close. Some of these options may be stacked together to help build the buyer’s purchasing power.  

In many cases they are worth exploring, and “seeing if the shoe fits.” A knowledgeable lender will be able to help a prospective home buyer to “try on these shoes” and see if there is a good fit. The best local Realtors and lenders will help a buyer understand which can be used at the time of purchase, and what types of documentation are necessary for each instance.  

In our experience, the programs are there for those who need it, and in many cases make the difference between what a buyer has available to bring to the table, and what they need to get the “Sold” sign put out on the lawn, and the keys in their hand. Some buyers may decide to investigate these options and go without the program or the available funds anyway.  Perhaps the interest rate is higher when using a program as opposed to going without it, meaning the monthly payment will be more when you use these programs.  Each buyer has their own criteria of what makes a good fit for them.  As with anything, “Mama said you gotta shop around.”  It’s worth considering the various down payment & first time homebuyer assistance options available when looking to purchase and deciding which option(s) provide the best fit.  

Don’t hesitate to reach out for more information.

Joseph Hudson is a referral agent with Metro Referrals. Reach him at [email protected] or 703-587-0597. Tina Del Casale is a mortgage banker at Sandy Spring Bank. Reach her at 301-850-1326.

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Real Estate

Totally radical home buying

We should celebrate advancement of homeownership rights

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The phrase “totally radical” came of age in the 1980s and was defined as cool, wonderful, or awesome. Its synonym, wicked, can be found in nearly all Ben Affleck movies and a cry of “Excellent!” will bring back memories of an adventure had by Bill (Alex Winter) and Ted (Keanu Reeves) in 1989.

Although some people are not ready for cocooning yet, homeownership is still a cornerstone of financial strength and wealth building. For LGBTQ individuals, owning a home can provide a sense of economic security and a sanctuary where they can express their personalities freely and without fear of discrimination or harassment. 

Whether house, condominium, or cooperative apartment, owning a place to chill allows you to build a legacy and provide for future generations. It offers the stability needed to plan for the future, whether that involves raising a family, supporting aging parents, or ensuring a spouse’s or partner’s financial security.

Homeowners are also more likely to invest in their communities, fostering strong, inclusive, bitchin’ neighborhoods. For many LGBTQ people, a home is “In the District,” which prides itself on diversity. Homeownership allows individuals to create personal spaces that reflect their identities and values, contribute to the city’s rich cultural tapestry, support local businesses, and participate in community events and governance.

The journey toward homeownership for gay individuals has evolved over the years, reflecting broader societal changes and the struggle for LGBTQ rights. The stark contrast between the ’80s and now highlights the progress made, the challenges that still exist, and future uncertainties brought forth by the space cadets in our political system. 

In the 1980s, homeownership for gay people was bogus. The decade was marked by lame, pervasive discrimination and limited legal protections. The HIV/AIDS epidemic further stigmatized the gay community, intensifying societal prejudices. This climate of fear and hostility permeated various aspects of life, including the housing market.

Gay individuals faced overt discrimination from landlords, real estate agents, and mortgage lenders, even in the rental market. It was not uncommon for same-sex couples to be denied housing simply because of their sexual orientation. Even in the late ’90s I had clients looking for homes in Prince William County, Va., who had to hightail it out of an open house when told to take a hike. I kid you not!

Financial institutions were often unwilling to grant mortgages to same-sex couples or openly gay individuals. When they did, the terms were often less favorable than those offered to heterosexual couples. This made the dream of homeownership significantly harder to achieve, even though DINKs (dual income, no kids) tended to have more household income than so-called “traditional” families.

Additionally, the lack of legal recognition for same-sex relationships posed harsh challenges. Without the ability to marry, same-sex couples faced difficulties in co-owning property and ensuring that their partner had legal rights to the home. Estate planning was complicated, as inheritance laws did not recognize same-sex partners, potentially leading to the loss of a home upon a partner’s death.

The landmark Supreme Court decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, was a fantabulous moment. This ruling provided same-sex couples with the same legal rights as heterosexual couples, including the ability to jointly own property and inherit without complication.

Anti-discrimination laws have also evolved. The definition of sex under the Federal Fair Housing Act has been expanded to include sexual orientation and gender identity, as have protected classes in Maryland and Virginia. The District has taken that a step further; our protected classes also include gender expression and personal appearance. 

Organizations like the DC Center for the LGBT Community and the National Association of Gay and Lesbian Real Estate Professionals (NAGLREP) offer resources and advocacy for LGBTQ+ homebuyers. These organizations provide educational workshops, networking opportunities, and support to navigate the housing market.

The advancement of homeownership rights for gay people is a testament to the righteous resilience and determination of the LGBTQ+ community. As society continues to strive for equality, it is essential to address the remaining challenges to ensure that everyone, regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity, can achieve the goal of homeownership.

In 2024, the only limitations on owning a home are finding one and being able to afford it. Pride weekend is a great time to go to open houses. You’ll probably be walking right by several. 

But if you’re not ready yet and just feel like getting your ’80s jams on, grab your disco balls and check out the Totally Tubular Festival at The Anthem at The Wharf on July 14.I’ll be Desperately Seeking Susan and will, as they used to say in the ’70s, catch you on the flip flop.

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