Real Estate
Valuing your home with the flip of a coin
Setting a price is one of Realtors’ toughest tasks

As Realtors, we know that one of our most difficult tasks is pricing a home. That holds true whether we are representing a seller or a buyer.
One of the great evolutions in real estate over the last decade is the power of the Internet, and more than 90 percent of homebuyers begin their search there. We think that’s great, and buyers are more empowered than ever with loads of information. Some of that information can come from sites like Zillow that offer what’s called an “automated valuation model” – AVM for short – that purportedly presents a great estimate of the current market value of millions of homes.
It’s cool technology, amassing an enormous amount of information from publicly available sources in one place that is then scrubbed through very sophisticated algorithms to predict value. And all of that is presented in an easy-to-use user interface. And to their enormous credit, Zillow has done a tremendous job in reaching “top of mind” status with consumers. There’s just one problem: Those predicted values are wildly inaccurate and inconsistent.
As Realtors, we know that one of our most difficult tasks is pricing a home. That holds true whether we are representing a seller or a buyer. Market pressures change from week to week and from neighborhood to neighborhood. The motivation of the parties is always a factor, as is the condition of a home and those around it. No algorithm, however sophisticated, can quantify the value of a kitchen that was remodeled just before a home was put on the market or a yard that is poorly maintained. It simply isn’t possible for any AVM to predict the value of a home with a level of accuracy sufficient to make a housing decision. Zillow knows that’s true – and they say as much on their website (although you have to dig a bit to find it). They have this to say about their “zestimates” of value:
“The Zestimate is not an appraisal and you won’t be able to use it in place of an appraisal, though you can certainly share it with real estate professionals. It is a computer-generated estimate of the worth of a house today, given the available data. Zillow does not offer the Zestimate as the basis of any specific real-estate-related financial transaction. Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home. Remember, the Zestimate is a starting point and does not consider all the market intricacies that can determine the actual price a house will sell for.”
Yet not a week goes by that we don’t encounter a consumer who is fixated on a particular value for a home because that’s what Zillow says it is. Kudos to Zillow for making this kind of impression on the public – brilliant marketing. But our research shows that, on average, those “zestimates” are within 5 percent of the actual value of a home just half of the time. (Funny, that’s what their research shows as well.) As Realtors, if we got within 5 percent of the value of a home that infrequently we’d be out of business.
So if a consumer wants to base their valuation of a home purchase or sale on what they find on the Internet, we suggest they take out a coin and flip it. Heads – that value is within 5 percent (high or low) of what the home is actually worth. Tails – that value could be 10 percent, 20 percent or more off target.
How accurate are ‘Zestimates?’
A detailed analysis of 500 recent sales in Metro Washington, D.C.: Beginning in 2010, McEnearney Associates has examined the accuracy of the estimates for property values that Zillow provides – their “zestimates” of value. This marks our fourth and most comprehensive analysis.
We took 500 properties in MRIS, our regional multiple listing system, that were scheduled to settle between March 24 and March 31, 2014. During that week, we looked for the zestimates of those 500 properties. Once the properties settled, we compared the actual sold price to the predicted values on Zillow. And to be as fair as possible, we excluded new home sales from our research because it is highly unlikely that Zillow would have details of the home to be built.
To provide some context, we compared the results of the March 2014 research to that of our September 2012 research. In 2012, we researched 280 properties, and we were able to find a zestimate for all 280. In the research we just concluded, we were able to find values for all but two of the 500 properties.
Generally, Zillow’s predicted market value is not any better now than it was 18 months ago. The zestimate is within 5 percent of the actual sales price roughly half the time. In September 2012, the zestimate was just as likely to be too low as too high; now, it is roughly twice as likely to be too low.
As one might expect with a computer-generated value, there are always “outliers.” In September 2012, of the 280 zestimates, the highest was roughly 140 percent of the actual sales prices. The lowest was 82 percent. In the research we just concluded, the highest predicted value was 256 percent of the actual sales price and the lowest was 62.8 percent.
There are significant geographic differences in Zillow’s performance in our current research. They get within 5 percent of the actual sales price just over a third of the time for properties in Washington, DC, and within 10 percent of the sales price less than 60 percent of the time. They are within 5 percent of sales price 43 percent of the time in Maryland and almost 60 percent in Virginia.
Zillow is a bit less accurate for condo and coops than for attached or detached homes. Mirroring the overall results, in all three property types Zillow is at least twice as likely to predict a value that is at least 5 percent lower than the actual value as predicting 5 percent high.
Not surprisingly, those properties that sold for $1,000,000 and more were a little tougher for Zillow to estimate accurately. They got within 5 percent of the actual price just over one third of the time. They fared much better for homes selling between $500,000 and $999,999, getting within 5 percent almost 60 percent of the time, but for homes selling for less than $500,000 they were within 5 percent less than half the time.
David Howell is executive vice president and chief information officer for McEnearney Associates. He is responsible for the firm’s technology, market information and public relations. He is also principal broker for McEnearney Associates in Maryland, and is an associate broker in Virginia and D.C.
In September 2024, I wrote about the District’s Lead-Free D.C. initiative, an ambitious effort to remove lead pipes and make drinking water safer for every resident in our city. Since that original article, a number of important developments have taken shape that affect everyone living in the District. Key drivers in the legal landscape surrounding this issue such as disclosure, testing, and infrastructure planning have been sharpened. The city’s sweeping pipe replacement efforts are continuing to evolve against the backdrop of broader federal drinking-water rules and funding changes.
What was once largely public health conversation for the future is now a practical reality for many property owners and renters. The water service line replacement project has moved from planning and is presently underway throughout the city.
Elevated levels of lead in drinking water is a perplexing challenge in many U.S cities. Researchers documented elevated lead levels in D.C.’s water system more than two decades ago, spotlighting how old infrastructure can pose a hidden health risk even in one of America’s wealthiest cities. Local leaders responded with pipe replacement plans that have continued in the years since.
The Lead-Free D.C. initiative remains the central effort to reduce that risk by replacing water supply lines. These are the pipes that carry water to your home or rental property from the street. D.C. Water estimates that tens of thousands of lead or galvanized service lines still exist in the city and must be systematically replaced to eliminate this exposure.
What Has Changed Since September 2024
Over the past 18 months, several shifts have rippled through policy, practice, and the daily experience of both landlords and tenants:
- Local Disclosure and Tenant Rights: The city has strengthened disclosure requirements. Today, property owners are expected to provide clear written disclosures about known lead service lines, any testing that has been done, and records of past replacements. Tenants also have the right to request lead testing of their tap water, and landlords are responsible for ordering and passing along the test kit, and are required by law to share results with tenants when requested.This reflects an ongoing push toward transparency and an informed occupancy.
- Pipeline Replacement Planning: D.C. Water and the District Government are continuing to roll out their block-by-block lead service line replacement work, with construction schedules publicly available through a Lead-Free D.C. construction dashboard. The goal is to remove by 2030 all lead service lines on both the public and private side, though timelines and funding mechanisms are still being refined as the work continues. D.C.’s Lead-Free DC initiative stipulates that DC Water is responsible to replace the public portion of a lead service line at no cost to the property owners. This is the section running from the water main under the street to the property owner’s lot line. When DC Water is already replacing the public side as part of a scheduled infrastructure project, it will also offer to replace the private-side service line (into the building) at no cost to the owner, as long as the owner grants access and signs a right-of-entry agreement. In these cases, DC Water pays the contractor directly, and the entire lead service line is removed in one coordinated effort.
When no public-side project is scheduled, owners may still qualify for full private-side replacement coverage through the District’s Lead Pipe Replacement Assistance Program (LPRAP). If approved, the program covers the cost of replacing the private-side lead pipe, with funds paid directly to the contractor. Property owners are typically responsible for selecting the contractor, coordinating the work, and covering any costs outside the approved scope of work. Funding is subject to availability, and eligible applicants may be placed on a waiting list depending on annual program budgets.
- Implementation Best Practices: To avoid challenges and misunderstandings regarding the responsibilities during such a significant undertaking, fully investigating the program and how it works is a good first start as is regular and clear communications.
It’s helpful for both property owners and residents to have a clear understanding of what D.C. Water and construction crews will be doing during a lead service line replacement and what follow-up work may remain once the project is complete. Like any major infrastructure upgrade, the process can involve temporary water shutoffs, excavation around the building, and some restoration afterward, such as repairing landscaping or sections of sidewalk. While these short-term disruptions can be inconvenient, they’re a normal and necessary part of modernizing the city’s water system and ensuring safer drinking water for the long term.
- Federal Drinking Water Rules: On the national stage, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized in October 2024 the Lead and Copper Rule Improvements (LCRI). The LCRI requires public water systems across the country to inventory and plan to replace lead service lines, and to remove all lead pipes within about a decade. It also strengthens testing, monitoring, and public notification requirements and lowers the action level for lead exposure, building on earlier revisions to the Lead and Copper Rule.
While these federal changes do not rewrite Washington, D.C.’s specific legal requirements for landlords and tenants, they do help shape funding opportunities, compliance expectations, and the broader national push to eliminate lead plumbing, which can affect utilities, state programs, and local infrastructure planning.
Federal drinking water regulations are subject to administrative review, litigation, and potential revisions as presidential administrations change. While the EPA’s 2024 Lead and Copper Rule Improvements remain in effect as of this writing, aspects of implementation, enforcement timelines, or funding mechanisms may evolve through future rulemaking, court decisions, or congressional action. These federal rules do not override Washington, D.C.’s independent authority to adopt and enforce its own public health, housing, and water safety requirements, which continue to govern landlord and tenant obligations within the District regardless of federal regulatory shifts.
What Landlords Should Know
For landlords in D.C., these evolving expectations matter in 3 key ways:
- Disclosure Is Now a Must: You are expected to provide prospective tenants with upfront information about lead service lines, known test results, and replacement history before lease signing. Existing tenants must also be informed if you learn anything new about the plumbing system.
- Testing Should Be Welcomed, Not Avoided: When tenants request a lead water test, you’re now required to provide D.C. Water’s approved kit and cooperate with the process. The test results give both sides clear information about water quality and whether additional remediation is advisable.
- Capital Investment May Be Unavoidable: Even if much of the public-side work is funded by D.C. Water, private-side service line replacement costs and restoration work may still fall to the property owner if the home still has lead service lines. Planning for both the expense and the logistics is key to be able to take advantage of this program being offered to D.C. homeowners.
What This Means for Tenants
For renters, the changes bring clearer rights and fewer unknowns. Tenants no longer have to guess whether lead pipes serve their home; they can request testing, receive timely results, and rely on official disclosures when deciding where to live and how to protect their health.
Transparent communication with the landlord, responsiveness to testing requests, and participation in replacement programs turn regulatory requirements into real-world safeguards. In that way, landlord action directly shapes tenant trust, housing stability, and long-term public health outcomes.
At a moment when the District is investing heavily in its infrastructure, landlords who plan ahead and participate help to ensure that these public resources translate into safer housing, stronger neighborhoods, and a city better equipped for the future.
Why This Still Matters
Lead-free water shouldn’t be a luxury. Continued investment by federal and local governments in Washington, D.C.’s water infrastructure reflects a shared commitment to the city’s long-term health and livability. Modernizing service lines helps ensure that people can raise families here, age in place, and remain part of their communities without the added health concerns associated with lead exposure.
Landlords who take the time now to understand, disclose, and plan for lead service line replacement not only comply with evolving expectations, but they also strengthen the long-term value and marketability of their properties.
Scott Bloom is owner and senior property manager of Columbia Property Management.
As the days grow longer and buyers re-emerge from winter hibernation, the spring market consistently proves to be one of the strongest times of year to sell a home. Increased inventory, motivated buyers, and picture-perfect curb appeal make it a prime window for homeowners ready to list.
The good news? Preparing your home for spring doesn’t require a full renovation or a contractor on speed dial. A few thoughtful, cost-effective updates can dramatically elevate your home’s appeal and market value.
Here are smart, inexpensive ways to get your property market-ready:
Fresh Paint: The Highest Return on a Small Investment
Few improvements transform a home as quickly and affordably as paint. Neutral tones remain the gold standard, but today’s buyers are gravitating toward warmer tan hues that create an inviting, elevated feel without overwhelming a space. Soft sandy beiges and warm greige-leaning tans provide a clean backdrop that photographs beautifully and allows buyers to envision their own furnishings in the home.
Freshly painted walls signal care and maintenance — two qualities buyers subconsciously look for when touring properties.
Removable Wallpaper: Style Without Commitment
For homeowners wanting to introduce personality without permanence, removable wallpaper offers a stylish solution. A subtle textured pattern in a powder room, a soft botanical print in a bedroom, or a modern geometric accent wall can add depth and character. Because it’s easily removed, it appeals to both sellers and buyers — creating visual interest without long-term risk.
Upgrade Light Fixtures for Instant Modernization
Outdated lighting can age a home instantly. Swapping builder-grade fixtures for modern, streamlined options is one of the simplest ways to refresh a space. Consider warm metallic finishes or matte black accents to create a cohesive, updated look. Proper lighting not only enhances aesthetics but also ensures your home feels bright and welcoming during showings.
Elevate Curb Appeal: First Impressions Matter Most
Spring buyers often decide how they feel about a home before they ever step inside. Refreshing curb appeal doesn’t require major landscaping. Simple updates such as fresh mulch, trimmed shrubs, seasonal flowers, a newly painted front door, and updated house numbers can dramatically improve first impressions. Power washing the driveway and walkways also delivers a clean, well-maintained appearance for minimal cost. Even if you don’t have a curb to appeal- think potted plants on your patio, balcony and change out your door mat.
Deep Clean & Declutter (Seriously, It Matters)
A deep, top-to-bottom cleaning is basically free and one of the most impactful things you can do. Scrub floors, windows, grout, baseboards, appliances, bathrooms, and everything in between. Don’t forget to clean windows inside and out — natural light is a huge selling point. Declutter by packing up excess stuff, clearing off countertops, and minimizing personal items so buyers can see the space, not your life.
Let the Light Shine
Make your home feel bright and inviting by cleaning windows, opening blinds, and replacing dark or dated light fixtures with contemporary, budget-friendly options. Swapping in LED bulbs offers brighter light and lower utility costs — a small change that buyers appreciate. Pro tip: I always recommend removing widow screens to allow as much light in as possible
Neutralize Scents
Make sure the home smells fresh. Neutralizing odors — whether from pets, cooking, or moisture — creates a clean, welcoming atmosphere. Light natural scents like citrus or subtle florals can be inviting during showings. Think of how your favorite hotel smells and go for that.
Spring market rewards preparation. By focusing on high-impact, low-cost improvements, sellers can position their homes to stand out in a competitive environment. With thoughtful updates and strategic presentation, homeowners can maximize both buyer interest and potential sale price — all without overextending their renovation budget.
As activity increases and inventory begins to rise, now is the time to prepare. A little polish today can translate into significant results tomorrow.
Justin Noble is a Real Estate professional with Sotheby’s International Realty Servicing Washington D.C., Maryland, and the beaches of Delaware.
Real Estate
2026: prices, pace, and winter weather
Lingering snow cover, sub-freezing temperatures have impacted area housing market
The D.C. metropolitan area’s housing market remains both pricey and complex. Buyers and sellers are navigating not only high costs and shifting buyer preferences, but also seasonal weather conditions that influence construction, inventory, showings, and marketing time.
Seasonality has long affected the housing market across the U.S. Activity typically peaks in spring and summer and dips in winter; however, January and February 2026 brought unusually cold spells to our area, with extended freezing conditions.
Persistent snow and ice-covered roads and sidewalks have gone for days, and in some cases weeks, before melting. While snow accumulation normally averages only a few inches this time of year, this winter saw below-normal temperatures and lingering snow cover that has significantly disrupted normal activity.
Rather than relying on neighborhood teenagers to shovel snow to make some extra money, the “snowcrete” has required ice picks, Bobcats, and snow removal professionals to clear streets and alleys, free our cars from their parking spaces, and restore availability of mass transit.
These winter conditions have had an adverse impact on the regional housing market in several ways.
- Construction slowdown: New builds and exterior improvements often pause during extended cold, resulting in delayed housing starts when we need affordable housing in the worst way.
- Listing preparation: Cleaning crews, sign installers, photographers, and stagers with trucks full of furniture may be unable to navigate roads and need to postpone service.
- Showings and open houses: Simply put, buyers are less inclined to schedule visits in hazardous conditions. Sellers must ensure walkways and parking areas are clear and de-iced and be able to vacate the property while viewings are taking place.
- Inspection and appraisal delays: Like buyers and sellers, ancillary professionals may be delayed by unfavorable weather, slowing timelines from contract to close.
- Maintenance and repairs: Properties with winter damage (e.g., ice dams or frozen pipes) may experience repair delays due to contractor availability and supply chain schedules. Snow and cold can also affect properties with older and more delicate systems adversely, leading some sellers to delay listing until better conditions arrive.
- Availability of labor: Increasingly, construction, landscaping, and domestic workers are reluctant to come into the District, not because of ice, but because of ICE.
Overall, the District has shown a notable increase in days on the market compared with past years. Homes that once sold in a week or less are now often listed for 30+ days before obtaining an offer, especially in the condominium and mid-range house segments. While part of this shift can be attributed to weather and climate, interest rates, uncertain employment, temporary furloughs, and general economic conditions play key roles.
Nonetheless, we continue to host some of the region’s most expensive residences. Historic estates, including a Georgetown mansion that sold for around $28 million, anchor the luxury segment and reflect ongoing demand for premium urban property.
But even in this high-end housing sector, marketing strategies are evolving based on seasonal realities. Price reductions on unique or niche properties, such as undersized or unconventional homes, reflect a broader market adjustment where competitive pricing can shorten selling time.
For example, a beautifully renovated, 4-story brick home with garage parking and multiple decks that overlook the Georgetown waterfront sold in early February for 90 percent of the list price after 50 days on the market.
At the other end of the spectrum, a 2-bedroom investor-special rowhouse in Anacostia only took eight days to sell for under $200,000, down 14 percent from its original list price. In addition, four D.C. homes took more than 250 days to sell, including an 8-bedroom rooming house that was on the market for 688 days and closed after a 23 percent downward price adjustment.
Some frustrated sellers are simply taking their homes off the market rather than dropping prices below their mortgage balances, although we are beginning to see the resurgence of short sales for those who must sell.
Condominiums and cooperatives offer many opportunities for buyers and investors, with 1,100 of them currently on the market in D.C. alone. List prices run the gamut from $55,000 for a studio along the Southwest Waterfront to nearly $5 million for five bedrooms, four full baths, and 4,400 square feet at the Watergate.
So, while Washington metro area prices remain high, the pace of sales now reflects both seasonal and economic realities. Homes taking longer to sell, in part caused by elements of winter, signal a shifting market where buyers can take more time to decide which home to choose and have a better negotiating posture than in recent years.
Accordingly, sellers must continue to price strategically, primp and polish their homes, and prepare for additional adverse circumstances by reviewing fluctuating market conditions with their REALTOR® of choice.
Valerie M. Blake is a licensed Associate Broker in DC, MD & VA with RLAH @properties. Call or text her at (202) 246-8602, email her at [email protected] or follow her on Facebook at TheRealst8ofAffairs.
