Politics
First Republican primary debate to take place on Aug. 23
It remains unclear whether Donald Trump will participate
The Republican National Committee will host the party’s first 2024 presidential primary debates next Wednesday, Aug. 23, in Milwaukee.
Five declared candidates have met the threshold requirements to participate: (One) 40,000 unique donors with at least 200 unique donors per state, (two) polling one percent or higher in three national polls recognized by the RNC, or in two national polls and in two polls from early voting states and (three) agreeing to support the eventual Republican nominee.
These GOP hopefuls are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who formerly served in the U.S. House of Representatives, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who formerly served as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. during the Trump administration, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a billionaire former tech mogul, and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.
Three more — former President and current GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, former Vice President Mike Pence, who formerly served in the U.S. House and as governor of Indiana, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — have not yet signed loyalty pledges but otherwise will qualify.
(Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder and former congressman Will Hurd are also in the running.)
It’s Trump’s race to lose
Just before he was handed a 13-count felony indictment on Monday, polling showed the twice impeached former president had grown his lead over DeSantis from six points in January 2023 to a whopping 38 points, while Ramaswamy trailed behind the Florida governor by just seven points and a one or two-point difference distinguished the rest of the field.
In 2015, the last time he faced a primary contest against a crowded pool of Republican hopefuls, Trump by August was leading the pack, though by a slimmer margin of 11 points. In a distant second place was Jeb Bush, who was governor of Florida from 1999-2007 and ultimately suspended his campaign after a poor showing in the South Carolina primary.
However, and despite the many scandals that roiled his insurgent campaign eight years ago, Trump had run on a populist economic platform with a relatively cohesive message stressing his business bona fides and outside-the-Beltway career as a real estate mogul.
The picture looks different now.
Should he secure the Republican nomination, Trump would square off against President Joe Biden, who already beat him in 2020.
Efforts by Trump to stay in power despite that decisive loss culminated in the Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ issuance on Monday of 13 felony indictments against him for election fraud and violations of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act.
“Trump and the other defendants charged in this indictment refused to accept that Trump lost, and they knowingly and willfully joined a conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the election in favor of Trump,” the indictment said.
The former president will now face a total of 91 charges in four separate cases that will soon be adjudicated in courtrooms from Fulton County, Ga., to New York, with the former carrying a mandatory minimum 5-year sentence — and the specter of live television coverage whose impact on the 2024 race will be difficult to forecast.
What to watch for next week
Most of Trump’s 2024 rivals reacted by coming to his defense following Monday’s news of the fourth set of indictments. Depending on whether he opts to participate in the Milwaukee debate, the other candidates may or may not take the opportunity to differentiate themselves from the former president and make the case for why they — and not he — should be nominated to take on Biden.
For instance, Christie told Fox News he is “uncomfortable” by the indictment, calling it “unnecessary,” but hedged that “we can’t normalize this conduct” by Trump and promised to call him out from the debate stage.
With such a solid lead, Trump may well skip the event despite having participated in all but one of the 12 presidential debates held between August 2015 and March 2016. Of the 17 major declared candidates, only U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) participated in all 12.
The U.S. Supreme Court established the nationwide constitutional right to same-sex marriage with Obergefell v. Hodges on June 26, 2015, prompting each of the GOP presidential primary candidates to go on the record with their respective positions.
A couple months later, during the Aug. 5 debate hosted by Fox News and Facebook in Cleveland, Kasich disclosed that he had recently attended a friend’s same-sex wedding, adding that “God gives me unconditional love” and therefore “I’m going to give it to my family and my friends and the people around me.”
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), by contrast — who had warned Obergefell would usher in the “criminalization of Christianity” — inveighed from the debate stage against policies allowing gay and transgender service members to serve openly in the military.
Now, of course, transphobia is ascendent on the right.
Hundreds of anti-LGBTQ bills, most targeting the transgender community, have been introduced in conservative state legislatures this year, prompting the Human Rights Campaign to declare a state of emergency for LGBTQ people in the U.S.
Experts say it’s all about keeping evangelicals voting. Whether and how the Republican Party’s embrace of anti-LGBTQ policies and rhetoric will be reflected on the debate stage next week remains to be seen.
2024 candidates on LGBTQ issues
The GLAAD Accountability Project details the records of each of the eight GOP hopefuls who are likely to appear on the debate stage next week. Here are some excerpts:
Trump:
In March 2023, GLAAD writes, the former president “vowed to crack down on ‘transgender insanity’ and pledged to ‘revoke every Biden policy promoting the disfigurement of our youth’ at the first rally of his 2024 presidential campaign. He said that he would ‘keep men out of women’s sports’ if re-elected president, after he last year misgendered transgender athlete Lia Thomas. He added: ‘I will immediately sign an executive order to cut federal funding for any school pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other racial, sexual or political content on our children.’”
DeSantis:
During an interview with Fox News in July 2022, DeSantis “lied about gender affirming care,” GLAAD notes, telling host Laura Ingraham: “They will actually take a young boy and castrate the boy. They will take a young girl and do a mastectomy, or they will sterilize her because of the gender dysphoria. There is no evidence that this is something that’s effective medical care.”
Ramaswamy:
In May 2023, Ramaswamy told Fox News Digital that “Target ‘spit in the face of conservatives’ in an anti-transgender attack on the retailer for selling swimwear designed to accommodate a variety of body types,” GLAAD writes.
Pence:
Last month, GLAAD notes, the former vice president, “as a part of his 2024 presidential bid, said that as president, he would again prohibit transgender Americans from serving in the military, as was the policy when he was vice president under Donald Trump: ‘… having transgender personnel, I believe, erodes unit cohesion in a very unique way.’”
Haley:
In June 2023, Haley “falsely claimed that transgender girls playing sports contribute to teenage suicide ideation,” GLAAD said, echoing previous comments in which the former South Carolina governor “said President Joe Biden’s support of transgender rights will destroy women’s sports, saying, ‘Across the sporting world, the game is being rigged against women and in favor of biological men.’”
Christie:
The organization notes that as governor, Christie signed bills “instituting broad new protections for trans New Jersey residents: One directing schools to let students use bathrooms and locker rooms based on their gender identity or provide ‘reasonable alternative arrangements,’ and another prohibiting health insurers from discriminating against transgender residents.” At the same time, GLAAD highlighted that he “vetoed a bill that would have eased access to accurate birth certificates for transgender people.”
Scott:
GLAAD highlighted a 2010 report in Newsweek that Scott “considers homosexuality a morally wrong choice, like adultery.”
Burgum:
In May 2023, GLAAD notes, Burgum “signed a bill into law that allows public school teachers and state government employees to ignore the pronouns their transgender students and colleagues use.”
Congress
Congress passes ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ with massive cuts to health insurance coverage
Roughly 1.8 million LGBTQ Americans rely on Medicaid
The “Big, Beautiful Bill” heads to President Donald Trump’s desk following the vote by the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives Thursday, which saw two nays from GOP members and unified opposition from the entire Democratic caucus.
To partially offset the cost of tax breaks that disproportionately favor the wealthy, the bill contains massive cuts to Medicaid and social safety net programs like food assistance for the poor while adding a projected $3.3 billion to the deficit.
Policy wise, the signature legislation of Trump’s second term rolls back clean energy tax credits passed under the Biden-Harris administration while beefing up funding for defense and border security.
Roughly 13 percent of LGBTQ adults in the U.S., about 1.8 million people, rely on Medicaid as their primary health insurer, compared to seven percent of non-LGBTQ adults, according to the UCLA School of Law’s Williams Institute think tank on sexual orientation and gender identities.
In total, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the cuts will cause more than 10 million Americans to lose their coverage under Medicaid and anywhere from three to five million to lose their care under Affordable Care Act marketplace plans.
A number of Republicans in the House and Senate opposed the bill reasoning that they might face political consequences for taking away access to healthcare for, particularly, low-income Americans who rely on Medicaid. Poorer voters flocked to Trump in last year’s presidential election, exit polls show.
A provision that would have blocked the use of federal funds to reimburse medical care for transgender youth was blocked by the Senate Parliamentarian and ultimately struck from the legislation — reportedly after the first trans member of Congress, U.S. Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.) and the first lesbian U.S. senator, Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), shored up unified opposition to the proposal among Congressional Democrats.
Congress
Ritchie Torres says he is unlikely to run for NY governor
One poll showed gay Democratic congressman nearly tied with Kathy Hochul
Gay Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres of New York is unlikely to challenge New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the state’s next gubernatorial race, he said during an appearance Wednesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
“I’m unlikely to run for governor,” he said. ““I feel like the assault that we’ve seen on the social safety net in the Bronx is so unprecedented. It’s so overwhelming that I’m going to keep my focus on Washington, D.C.”
Torres and Hochul were nearly tied in a poll this spring of likely Democratic voters in New York City, fueling speculation that the congressman might run. A Siena College poll, however, found Hochul leading with a wider margin.
Back in D.C., the congressman and his colleagues are unified in their opposition to President Donald Trump’s signature legislation, the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which heads back to the House after passing the Senate by one vote this week.
To pay for tax cuts that disproportionately advantage the ultra-wealthy and large corporations, the president and Congressional Republicans have proposed massive cuts to Medicaid and other social programs.
A provision in the Senate version of the bill that would have blocked the use of federal funds to reimburse medical care for transgender youth was blocked by the Senate Parliamentarian and ultimately struck from the legislation, reportedly after pressure from transgender U.S. Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.) and lesbian U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).
Torres on “Morning Joe” said, “The so-called Big Beautiful Bill represents a betrayal of the working people of America and nowhere more so than in the Bronx,” adding, “It’s going to destabilize every health care provider, every hospital.”
Congress
House Democrats oppose Bessent’s removal of SOGI from discrimination complaint forms
Congressional Equality Caucus sharply criticized move
A letter issued last week by a group of House Democrats objects to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s removal of sexual orientation and gender identity as bases for sex discrimination complaints in several Equal Employment Opportunity forms.
Bessent, who is gay, is the highest ranking openly LGBTQ official in American history and the second out Cabinet member next to Pete Buttigieg, who served as transportation secretary during the Biden-Harris administration.
The signatories to the letter include a few out members of Congress, Congressional Equality Caucus chair and co-chairs Mark Takano (Calif.), Ritchie Torres (N.Y.), and Becca Balint (Vt.), along with U.S. Reps. Nikema Williams (Ga.), Hank Johnson (Ga.), Raja Krishnamoorthi (Ill.), Delia Ramirez (Ill.), Joyce Beatty (Ohio), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D.C.), Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), and Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas).
The letter explains the “critical role” played by the EEO given the strictures and limits on how federal employees can find recourse for unlawful workplace discrimination — namely, without the ability to file complaints directly with the Employment Opportunity Commission or otherwise engage with the agency unless the complainant “appeal[s] an agency’s decision following the agency’s investigation or request[s] a hearing before an administrative judge.”
“Your attempt to remove ‘gender identity’ and ‘sexual orientation’ as bases for sex discrimination complaints in numerous Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) forms will create unnecessary hurdles to employees filing EEO complaints and undermine enforcement of federal employee’s nondiscrimination protections,” the members wrote in their letter.
They further explain the legal basis behind LGBTQ inclusive nondiscrimination protections for federal employees in the EEOC’s decisions in Macy v. Holder (2012) and Baldwin v. Foxx (2015) and the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Bostock v. Clayton County (2020).
“It appears that these changes may be an attempt by the department to dissuade employees from reporting gender identity and sexual orientation discrimination,” the lawmakers wrote. “Without forms clearly enumerating gender identity and sexual orientation as forms of sex discrimination, the average employee who experiences these forms of discrimination may see these forms and not realize that the discrimination they experienced was unlawful and something that they can report and seek recourse for.”
“A more alarming view would be that the department no longer plans to fulfill its legal obligations to investigate complaints of gender identity and sexual orientation and ensure its
employees are working in an environment free from these forms of discrimination,” they added.
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